don’t believe the hype

82ND OSCAR QUICK PICKS by caseyly16

I can’t remember a year when the choices were so clear cut. Check out my predictions (and hopes) after the jump!

Best Picture

Prediction: The Hurt Locker. The momentum behind this independent film is incredible…from the overwhelming critical support to the recent BAFTA Best Picture award, Bigelow’s Hurt Locker is the engine that could. I don’t see giant bully Avatar spoiling the party. And in all honesty, it does not, in any way, shape or form, deserve to.

Want: Interestingly enough, two of the best films this year are both character studies of conflicted men who handle extraordinary circumstances on a day to day basis. And no, one of these films is NOT Avatar. I’m talking about Up in the Air (other being The Hurt Locker), a superb film which deserves the big “W.” Why? Because it is an emotionally mature and witty film which tackles the massive theme of human relationships in a nonchalant way (we haven’t seen this kind of film since Sofia Coppola’s Lost in Translation). Not enough for you? It also has Jason Reitman at the peak of his penmanship (a fancy way of saying that the script is badass), excellent acting by both leads (Anna Kendrick was okay too), solid direction (although a bit glossy), and a very good score.

Best Director

Prediction: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker. She won the Director’s Guild Award already, and as history suggest; the DGA winner will be the Oscar winner.

Want: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker. She deserves this one. No one film this year had such intensity and impact. Every aspect of the film was amazingly well-done. I don’t know what else to say.

Original Screenplay

Prediction: Inglorious Basterds, Quentin Tarantino. Supported by a big ole promotional campaign and so-called Award “experts.”

Want: Inglorious Basterds, Quentin Tarantino. Although The Hurt Locker’s Mark Boal is certainly a viable candidate with all the buzz his movie has been generating, I believe Quentin Tarantino is still the master here.

Adapted Screenplay

Prediction: Up in the Air, Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner.

Want: Up in the Air, Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner. Like I said, pretty clear-cut winners in this year’s Oscars. Up in the Air had the wittiest and most intelligent dialogue this year…definitely should (and will) be recognized.

Lead Actor

Prediction: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart. Has been the front runner amongst critics for months.

Want: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart. A tremendous actor who seems like he deserves it. Although I’m betting The Hurt Locker train will give him a run for his money…it’s hard to believe that Jeremy Renner was in “SWAT.” George Clooney also did an excellent (although relatively uninspired) job.

Lead Actress

Prediction: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side. She’s come a loong way since Speed and Miss Congeniality. She did a surprisingly great job in this film and the critics know it.

Want: Sandra Bullock. It’ll balance out her Razzie for her performance in “All About Steve”

Supporting Actor

Prediction & Want: Easiest choice of the night. Christoph Waltz for Inglorious Basterds. He’s got the formula down: Brilliant acting + surprise success story + critical support = Oscar.

Supporting Actress

Prediction & Want: Mo’Nique for Precious. Another “who woulda thought??” moment.

Animated Feature & Short

Prediction & Want: ┬áHonestly, Up is a strong candidate for Best Picture…but it wont happen so it’ll win by landslide here.


Prediction: Most intriguing match-up of the night. The visual orgasm that was Pandora may have swept the Academy but I’m thinking they went with the more mature approach and will pick the grittiness of The Hurt Locker.

Want: The Hurt Locker was easily more impressive because of the way which it captured the sheer chaos and intensity of the Iraqi battleground. It’s one thing to create an entirely new planet and another to change the perspective of the one everyone already knows.

Original Score

Prediction and Want: Up. Pretty much a unanimous pick by everyone at this point, and it earned it.

Other Categories:

Avatar‘s easily going to win all the visual effects/technical achievement categories here, and rightfully so. I didn’t see any of the documentaries or foreign films so I cannot comment on them. Star Trek is probably a lock for Make Up.

Final Comment:

If you have been following this blog, you’ll notice that I posted the trailer for The Hurt Locker wayyyyy back when before the release of the film. I remember seeing the trailer in theaters and thinking, “this will be an explosive film.” Look where we are now…the momentum which has built since then has been ridiculous. Anyways, all hype aside, I truly believe that The Hurt Locker should go down as the most memorable film of this year, not Avatar. While what James Cameron achieved was visually stunning and technologically advanced (and made a gallion dollars), I am a firm believer of quality over quantity.

As always, expect the unexpected and don’t believe the hype. What are your predictions?


1 Comment so far
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Great article. You’ve explained your points well. Many of our picks are similar. You also seem to agree with a lot of the probable winners.

Comment by ianthecool

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